The MDX 500 closed at a record 8,412 on Wednesday, sealing its best quarter in six years as investors bet the Bank of Coravia’s next move on interest rates will be down.
The index has gained 11.4 per cent since April. Construction and engineering stocks led the quarter, up 19 per cent as the Coastal Shield programme moved from bill to law, while banks added 14 per cent on widening loan demand.
“The market has decided the autumn review is a live meeting,” said Vera Lonn, chief strategist at Halvern Capital. Swap pricing now implies a 70 per cent probability of a quarter-point cut by November, against 40 per cent at the start of June.
Wednesday’s session added 0.8 per cent, with Vantor Semiconductors the single largest contributor after confirming first output from its 2-nanometre line. Ardent Foods and Skylark Air both touched twelve-month highs on expansion news.
Not everyone is celebrating the melt-up. The exchange’s own quarterly bulletin notes that valuations now sit a fifth above their ten-year average, and that the rally’s breadth has narrowed since June. “Records are lagging indicators,” Lonn cautioned. “The bank’s decision, not the tape, writes the next quarter.”